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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate

The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's positions."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."